MONDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2016
Today’s Good News And Bad News
From Our Local Political Junkie We’ll Call “Cincy Dave”

GOOD NEWS FOR TRUMP
“Letter from London” article suggests that Trump can win, based on the experience of the U.K.’s Brexit vote, (to leave the European Union) where all of the polls, pundits and even the betting markets were dead wrong. In that case, the betting markets had “remain” in the low 80s percentage, exactly where “Hillary to win” is today. There are many other parallels between the Brexit vote and the current U.S. Presidential election. The lesson there was to never underestimate appeal of nativism and the power of angry white men who are motivated to turn out to vote in unexpected numbers. The article is a good read and ought to scare the hell out of the Hillary campaign. More here. 

MORE GOOD NEWS FOR TRUMP
Absentee ballot requests from Ohio Republicans have picked up, compared to 2012, while Democratic requests have fallen off. This is the opposite of trends in Florida and North Carolina. Is Ohio becoming more Republican? It wouldn’t surprise us. Ohio has always been a basically Republican state with only Cuyahoga County keeping it from being just like Indiana. Trump’s appeal to many out-of-work former union workers around Cleveland and other rust-belt cities may be enough to win in Ohio.

BAD NEWS FOR TRUMP
Another Trump accuser comes out. Cathy Heller claimed on Saturday that Trump grabbed her and tried to kiss her on the mouth about 20 years ago, and she has witnesses. Many of the other accusers have friends or relatives that can back up their stories because they were told about the incidents at the time. Trump has said that he can offer evidence that proves every one of his accusers is lying but, just like the promised release of his taxes, the evidence is not forthcoming. This makes about a dozen women that have accused The Donald of groping them or kissing them against their will. Can he beat Bill Cosby’s record of 50 accusers? We don’t think so. Although the actual number of victims may be as many or more, being groped or kissed is a lot smaller transgression and wouldn’t create the same revenge motive that rape does. More on Heller’s story here: 

BAD NEWS FOR HILLARY
A top State Department official allegedly “pressured” the FBI to downgrade the classification of one of Hillary Clinton’s emails as part of a “quid pro quo,” according to documents released by the bureau on Monday. The accusation of such an arrangement came from an interview the FBI conducted. Notes from the interview were released as part of the FBI’s public posting of documents related to its investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server. In the interview, the unnamed official says that Pat Kennedy, under secretary of state for management, tried in late June or early July of last year to get the FBI to change a classified email to unclassified, in exchange for State Department “allowing the FBI to place more Agents in countries where they are presently forbidden.” State Department Deputy Spokesperson Mark Toner strongly denied that such a quid pro occurred. “This allegation is inaccurate and does not align with the facts. To be clear: the State Department did upgrade the document at the request of the FBI when we released it back in May 2015,” Toner said. (MORE)  

N.C. GOP OFFICE ATTACKED
A North Carolina GOP office was firebombed on Saturday night and graffiti calling Republicans “Nazis” was painted on a nearby building. Trump blamed “animals” while Hillary said the attack was “horrific and unacceptable.” It shouldn’t surprise anyone if hyper-partisans from either side are found to be responsible although there are no suspects yet. More here: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/north-carolina-gop-office-attacked-229865

TRUMP ATTACKS LEADERS WHO DON’T ACCEPT ELECTION RIGGING CLAIM
The Donald lashed out at Republican leaders today, including House Speaker Paul Ryan, who have pushed back against the GOP nominee’s message that the election is being rigged against him.“Of course there is large scale voter fraud happening on and before Election Day. Why do Republican leaders deny what is going on? So naive!” Trump tweeted. He followed up with a unity message for the deeply fractured party, saying, “We have all got to come together and win this election. We can’t have four more years of Obama (or worse!).” Trump has increasingly pushed his rigging claim in recent days. Most observers believe it has one or more of three purposes: to energize his base of angry voters, to try to peel off former supporters of Bernie Sanders because Sanders made the same claim against Hillary or, in the event he loses, to provide an excuse other than his own shortcomings. 

TODAY’S STATE POLLS
The large Latino population in Nevada may be the determining factor there. Utah is arguably the most Republican state in the U.S. and hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since LBJ, 52 years ago. Virginia is a lost cause for Trump and his campaign fled the state last week.

— More Good News And Bad News Tomorrow —