FRIDAY, JULY 29, 2016
Today’s Good News And Bad News
From Our Local Political Junkie We’ll Call “Cincy Dave”

GOOD NEWS FOR HILLARY
The Conventions are history now and the last few nights of the Democrat convention went off almost without a hitch. Hillary’s speech last night was not on the level of “I have a dream,” but she did well enough to show the differences between herself and DJT. The easy part was beating up on DJT. The hard part was making herself likeable and she may have done well enough, with the help of daughter Chelsea and the would-be “First Gentleman.” After all, she only has to beat one person, and that person almost seems to be playing into her hands, with all his threats, mocking and name-calling, not to mention inviting the Russians to participate.

The Donald will be unhappy to learn that the Democrat Convention outdrew his convention in the number of viewers. It would be interesting to see what he has to say about that but we may not ever find out.

BAD NEWS FOR TRUMP
The guy who really wrote “The Art of the Deal” speaks out in the New Yorker magazine. He is very regretful about having written this best seller (which Trump claims to have written himself) and feels responsible for the political rise of Trump. The success of “The Art of the Deal” eventually led to the TV show, “The Apprentice,” which made Trump a household name and then Fox News promoted him for years as a viable presidential candidate. This is an interesting read and gives good insights into the way Trump thinks and operates. (“Donald Trump’s Ghostwriter Tells All”)

Polls
Finally, here are today’s meaningless polls – they are meaningless for a couple of reasons. First, it is still way too early with more than 100 days left, which is at least 2 or 3 lifetimes in a presidential campaign. It will be after the debates in September and October before some clarity emerges. Second, polling in states like California is a waste of time. California hasn’t gone to the Republican candidate since Ronald Reagan (or his running mate) was on the ballot (28 years ago) and he was the Governor there. Demographic changes such as the increasingly huge number of Mexican-Americans have made it just about out of reach for Republicans anyway, and especially this year with the anti-Mexican rhetoric from Trump. Additionally, a large number of Asian-Americans live in California and Asians have moved from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party in recent years. The anti-immigrant stance of the Republican party brings back too many memories of the WWII internment of Japanese-Americans (ironically, by FDR). To paraphrase DJT, Hillary could probably shoot someone in public in downtown Los Angeles and still carry California. In short, Trump should not, and probably will not, waste any time or money on California and the pollsters shouldn’t either. Luckily for the Blue Team, California is the mother lode of Electoral Votes (55) far more than any other state, and accounts for over 1/5^th of the number needed to win.