MONDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2016
Today’s Good News And Bad News
From Our Local Political Junkie We’ll Call “Cincy Dave”
VERY GOOD NEWS FOR HILLARY
The FBI gave Hillary the all-clear yesterday. In a letter to the same members of congress he sent a letter to 10 days ago, Director James Comey told them that there was nothing in Anthony Weiner’s computer that would change the FBI’s assessment that Hillary had committed no criminal acts. This is not only good news for the Clinton campaign, but is a dagger to the heart of Trump’s, whose only real hope was to convince people that Hillary is the most crooked person ever to run for president, and likely to be indicted any minute. Do you think it’s possible that the president called Comey and offered him a job? – A job like Director of the FBI? Never! To think otherwise is to think that politics is not always strictly honest and above board. Even Dick Cheney, in similar circumstances, wouldn’t have done a dastardly thing like that, would he? Certainly not – he would have merely called Comey to inquire about his health.
BAD NEWS FOR HILLARY
Wikileaks dumped another 8000 emails yesterday, hacked from the DNC. Most of these are just day-to-day garbage of little interest, although a few could be slightly embarrassing to the senders. Cutting off Julian Assange’s internet apparently didn’t have any effect on the Wikileaks operation, which is probably being run by the Russians. It looks like they don’t have any more real ammunition left. Trump’s invitation to the Russians to hack all they wanted has done some damage but has probably ultimately failed as a campaign tactic. (MORE)
TRUMP CUT OFF FROM TWITTER
The Donald’s staff has taken away his Twitter account, to keep him from tweeting out any additional outrageous stuff in the last few days before the election. Apparently, they finally convinced the loose cannon that he was doing himself more damage than good with his late-night rants. Now he has to figure out what else to do at 3 AM. President Obama, campaigning for Hillary in Florida, did not pass up the chance to get in a few digs at Trump about the news. He said, “Apparently his campaign has taken away his Twitter. In the last two days, they had so little confidence in his self-control, that they said ‘We’re just going to take away your Twitter …. Now if somebody can’t handle a Twitter account, they can’t handle the nuclear codes. If somebody starts tweeting at 3 in the morning because SNL made fun of you, then you can’t handle the nuclear codes.” More here:
POPE VS. TRUMP
On the eve of the election, Pope Francis again warned against false prophets and those who want to build walls. Although he didn’t mention Trump by name, it was obvious who he was talking about, as he had previously mentioned it during his trip to Mexico this past summer. More here:
FUNNY STORIES ABOUT TRUMP
Vanity Fair has some funny stories about Trump that show off his real personality. One story was about how he brought one female guest at the White House Correspondence Dinner to tears with his vulgar talk. Well worth reading (for amusement only). Go here:
It’s time to take our shot at a prediction. We can’t do any worse than Dick Morris or Wayne Allyn Root, who collect big money for their completely wrong predictions. (i.e., Romney landslide). It has been clear since the conventions that Hillary has usually had the advantage, having never been behind in the average of national polls, although there have been many ups and downs. The way we look at it, the various controversies over the course of the campaign have cancelled each other out, with the emails doing about as much damage to Hillary as the pussygate tape and associated indecencies by The Donald did to him. In the end, it mostly gets down to the same old party politics. Demographics have favored the Democratic party for many years, and that gets worse for the other side with each passing year, as the electorate is becoming more diverse, while the Republican Party has become less diverse, older and whiter. Almost any way you slice and dice the demographics – by race, sex, education, ethnicity and other ways, Hillary retains the advantage. Among the few groups she is behind with are old white men, poorly educated white men and maybe evangelicals. We think that there just aren’t enough old, uneducated white men and evangelicals to overcome all of the women, people with college educations, and minority groups for The Donald to win in most of the swing states, which are the only ones that are really contested anymore. Without the swing states, the Democratic candidate usually has a built-in base of 242 Electoral Votes, including the left coast, New England, the mid-Atlantic states, and the upper mid-West. Republicans have 191 built-in electoral votes, which include most of the Confederate States and the fly-over states. That leaves a mere 105 Electoral votes to fight over in all the swing states. For any Democrat to win the presidency, they only have to get 28 more than their base to get to the 270 EVs that are needed to win. That can be accomplished by winning just one swing state, if it is Florida, or any combination of 2 or 3 smaller ones that add up to 28. It is much, much harder for a Republican to win because he or she would have to win most of the swing states, including Florida, which is an absolute must-win. Our expectation is that Hillary will win all of the traditionally Blue States, with the addition of the swing states of Florida, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, and probably N. Carolina. She can lose well over half of them, including Florida, and still win. Trump is favored in Ohio, and should do well here, even though Obama won Ohio both times. Obama saved the auto industry which helped him in Ohio, but Hillary can’t claim that for herself, and Ohio has otherwise traditionally been a Republican state. That will probably hold. We think Trump will win Iowa. We could be wrong – there might be an undetectable army of uneducated old white guys in a lot of swing states, but it is doubtful. Our best guess: Hillary 323, Trump 215.
TODAY’S STATE POLLS
There are about 100 new state polls out today but they show nothing different than previous polls. Hillary is ahead in all the swing states except that Florida and Nevada are very close. Although about 30 percent of voters have already voted, either by mail or early voting, yesterday’s good news for Hillary could help boost her chances slightly in the close races.
— More Good News And Bad News Tomorrow —