MONDAY, AUGUST 29, 2016

Today’s Good News And Bad News

From Our Local Political Junkie We’ll Call “Cincy Dave”

GOOD NEWS
The first Debate is only four weeks from today. It’s looking like The Donald will participate after all, but with him, nothing is certain (except death)- not even taxes. It’s still too early to stock up on popcorn but you can circle the date and mark the time – Monday, Sept. 26-th at 9 P.M. It will be on all the major networks, so pick your favorite.

BAD NEWS FOR TRUMP
The Washington Post reports that Catholics are deserting Trump in droves. They claim that the shift from the Republican Candidate in 2012 to Hillary is larger among Catholics than in any other group, including women, blacks, Hispanics, etc. His fight with the Pope earlier this year has apparently come back to bite him big-time. As Catholics comprise one-fourth of all voters, this could be devastating.

TRUMP ON IMMIGRATION
Trump’s flip-flop speech on Immigration, which was postponed two weeks ago is back on – rescheduled for this Wednesday in Arizona. It really doesn’t matter what he says, this is a lose-lose situation. If he says he would still deport everyone here illegally, then the Hispanics (and there are a lot of them in the Southwest) will be remain hostile toward him. If he says let most of them stay, many of his supporters, who liked the idea of uprooting 11 million people and hauling them back to Mexico and Central America, are going to be angry. Lately, he and his spokespersons have been implying that he will let “the good ones” stay, and deport only criminals. He is unlikely to gain a lot of support among Hispanics anyway, after spending a year claiming that he would deport every last one of them. We guess his flip-flop is really intended to improve his image among non-Hispanic voters.

COLLEGE STUDENTS
Trump said he loves the uneducated, and to some extent, they love him. College students – not so much. It seems that the College Republican Clubs are having a real battle among themselves about whether to support The Donald. This is very similar to what the big Republican Club has been going through all year.

TRUMP IS HELPING PUTIN
An article in Politico states that Russia and Ukraine are as much (or more) interested in the U.S. election as Americans are. Russians are rooting for Trump to win while Ukrainians are horrified by him. They both see the political chaos here as a giant reality show and Russians particularly enjoy the scandals and name calling. They really liked Trump’s ridiculous claim that Obama and Hillary created ISIS. What has fascinated Kiev observers is that even before Trump got involved in Russia, Trump advisers Carter Page and Paul Manafort were already consulting and making business deals with Ukrainian and Russian billionaires. Even Michael T. Flynn, former director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency and Trump’s current national security adviser, found his way into one Ukrainian TV account for sitting at the same table with Putin at a “Russia Today” dinner last year. Above all, Ukrainians are unnerved by the idea that a Putin ally such as Trump could occupy the most powerful office in the world. “Trump’s entire discourse—not just not challenging the Russian occupation of Crimea but isolationism, conspiracy theories, little respect for the law and the right to bully—it all looks exactly like what the Kremlin has been saying about the U.S. for years.”

CAN TRUMP MAKE A COMEBACK?
Some people are saying it’s already too late for Trump but you never know. There have been 4 big comebacks in history and two have been successful. The most famous one was the Truman win in 1948, after he had been completely written off by everyone in politics and the media. One of his nemeses, the Chicago Tribune, was so sure that he would lose that they printed several editions with a headline saying that his opponent had won. The most famous is the one shown, but other headlines were printed saying “GOP WINS WHITE HOUSE.”

Of course, there are many differences between the 1948 election and this one. Truman was a wise and experienced politician as opposed to Trump, who knows little or nothing about politics. Polling back then was in its infancy with only one major pollster, Gallup, and their methods were crude compared to today. Truman’s opponent was hugely overconfident and campaigned little, whereas Truman worked hard at it. Truman also had a Republican congress to run against, and correctly labeled them the “Do Nothing 80^–th Congress.” (like the current congress). Truman’s opponent, Thomas Dewey, who he never mentioned by name, wore a mustache in an era when mostly only bad guys like Stalin and the late Herr Hitler did so. Sometimes Truman would, when referring to his opponent in a speech, just rub his finger across his upper lip as if to stroke a mustache. That would bring some snickers from the audience.

Back then, Truman campaigned by train crossing the country in what was called a whistle-stop campaign. Truman would make a short speech at each stop and at the end of it, someone would inevitably yell, “Give ‘em Hell, Harry.” Truman always said, “I don’t give ‘em hell, I just tell the truth and they think it’s hell.”

Truman won the election but later the Korean War cost him his popularity. He left office with the lowest approval rating of any president other than Nixon, who was only days from impeachment and certain removal from office when he resigned. However, history has been kind to Truman and he is now considered one of our best presidents. So much so that even Republicans now speak well of him. Papa Bush even went so far as to compare himself with Truman at his own nominating convention.

So, can Trump win? It seems very unlikely at this point, with only about 10 weeks left. It would take something really big to change things. Hillary has been running for president since the Big Dog left office 16 years ago, and she is known for being cautious, so she is unlikely to have intentionally done anything to ruin her chances, although she has made several big mistakes. We think the only real chance for Trump would be to pull off big wins in the debates, but to Liberals Like Me that seems like a faint hope – more like a faint prayer – and one that’s unlikely to be answered.

BEST PUT-DOWN OF THE CAMPAIGN
Trump’s tweet about the death of the cousin of NBA star Dwyane Wade, shot walking down the street in Chicago, drew huge criticism from all sides. If you hadn’t heard about it, here is what he said: “Dwyane Wade’s cousin was just shot and killed walking her baby in Chicago. Just what I have been saying. African-Americans will VOTE TRUMP!” An hour later, Trump offered the usual “thoughts and prayers” to the family. This insensitivity caused Ana Navarro, a Republican who formerly worked for Jeb Bush and now works for CNN, to comment, “Forget about unfit to be president. He’s unfit to be human.” Then she added: “Was he raised by wolves?”